2. Methods handbook#

This chapter provides information on different reliability prediction and methods inputs, allowing to understand the background of the models defined in the EEE chapter (Section 3, Section 4), mechanical chapter (Section 5, Section 6), miscellaneous chapter (Section 7, Section 8), and system chapter (Section 9, Section 10). The different reliability prediction inputs considered are: in orbit return, manufacturer data, test data, handbook data, and failure mechanism analysis. With these inputs, reliability prediction models can be derived using statistical methods, physics of failure approaches or a combination of both, see Fig. 2.1. Specific attention is given to the combined approach using Bayesian methods, allowing to make best use of all available information. Finally, this chapter is completed with a discussion of uncertainties associated with a prediction, including both model development uncertainties as well as uncertainties resulting from assumptions made by model users.


Fig. 2.1 Relation between different types of reliability prediction methods and the available inputs.#

This chapter contains the following sections: